Some news from the trade war front - commentary by Joshua Schneider

Some news from the trade war front. China has decided to exempt pork
and soybeans from future tariffs, giving a much-needed reprieve to the
agricultural sector in the United States. There was joking last week
when China lifted tariffs on a few inconsequential items that it was an
“olive twig,” but this move signals something bigger.

China will exempt some agricultural
products from additional tariffs on U.S. goods, including pork and
soybeans, China’s official Xinhua News Agency said Friday, in the latest
sign of easing Sino-U.S. tensions before a new round of talks aimed at
curbing a bruising trade war.

The United States and China have both made conciliatory gestures,
with China renewing purchases of U.S. farm goods and U.S. President
Donald Trump delaying a tariff increase on certain Chinese goods.

This is likely happening for reasons related to China’s condition,
not as a gesture of goodwill China would like nothing more than to
stick it to us but they rely on our agricultural products to keep their
people from starving.

An outbreak of deadly African swine fever, which has cut
China’s pig herd by a third since mid-2018, has propelled Chinese pork
prices to record levels and left the country in need of replacement
supplies from overseas. U.S. pork exports to China so far this year have
largely fallen short of expectations.

That issue of diseases didn’t just come out of nowhere. It is a
result of China sourcing unsafe Russian pork to try to replace what we
were selling them. In other words, China needs us and they are starting
to feel the pinch. Hence, they lifted these tariffs because they need
the imports, not just to be nice.

It’s disappointing that just last week I saw some conservatives
on Twitter snarking that Trump should retreat and declare victory.
That’s short sighted and stupid. It’s exactly the kind of attitude that
got Trump elected, i.e. the idea that Republicans aren’t willing to
fight the tough battles. Trump is winning this trade war. For now, the
U.S. has been largely left unscathed, with the markets already
rebounding big after a scare a few weeks ago. The question is whether
Trump can finish this before 2020. This isn’t something he’s going to
want hanging over his head. That’s the only wildcard in this.


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